India and Pakistan have shared the waters of the Indus River system under the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) for over six decades. But after the recent terror attack in Kashmir, India has put the treaty “in abeyance,” signaling a potential shift in the region’s water dynamics. Let’s explore what this means for South Asia and its water security.
Background: The Indus Waters Treaty
Signed in 1960, the IWT is a landmark water-sharing agreement brokered by the World Bank between India and Pakistan. The treaty allocates the three eastern rivers — Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej — to India, and the three western rivers — Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab — to Pakistan. Despite several wars and conflicts, the treaty has remained intact for decades.
What Does ‘In Abeyance’ Mean?
India’s decision to put the treaty “in abeyance” is a legal gray area. The treaty does not explicitly mention suspension or withdrawal. By choosing this term, India is effectively pausing its commitments under the treaty without formally exiting it. This gives India leverage to pressure Pakistan while technically keeping the door open for negotiations.
Why Now? The Kashmir Connection
The decision to suspend the treaty came after a terror attack in India-administered Kashmir that claimed the lives of 26 Hindu tourists. India uncovered that Pakistan-based militant groups were behind the attack.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi made it clear that talks with Pakistan would focus solely on terrorism. Water-sharing agreements, he suggested, would remain on hold until Islamabad takes decisive action against terrorism.
Impact on Water Security
The Indus River is a lifeline for both countries, but particularly for Pakistan, where it supplies water for agriculture and hydropower. Islamabad has called any attempt to restrict water flow from the Indus “an act of war.”
Pakistan’s Dependence: Over 80% of Pakistan’s agricultural sector relies on the Indus River. Any disruption in water flow could devastate its food production and power generation.
India’s Leverage: India, being the upstream country, can technically divert or store more water, though doing so would require massive infrastructure projects.
Regional Ramifications: Bangladesh and China
India’s decision to pause the IWT could set a precedent that affects its other water-sharing agreements:
Bangladesh: India shares the Ganges River Basin with Bangladesh under the Ganga Water Treaty, set to expire next year. If India leverages water as a political tool with Pakistan, Dhaka might also feel the heat.
China: The Indus originates in Tibet, under Chinese control. China, a close ally of Pakistan, has invested heavily in Pakistan’s hydroelectric infrastructure. If India diverts water from the Indus, Beijing could respond by restricting flows from the Brahmaputra River, affecting northeastern India.
Legal and Diplomatic Implications
The IWT does not have a clause for unilateral suspension or abeyance, making India’s move legally ambiguous. International water law, as outlined by the 1997 UN Convention on Watercourses, requires countries to share transboundary rivers fairly and prevent harm to downstream neighbors.
India’s Position: India has not signed the UN Convention, but it generally follows its principles. However, by suspending the IWT, India is taking a strong stand against terrorism.
International Repercussions: Pakistan could theoretically bring the matter to the International Court of Justice, but India only accepts its jurisdiction in specific cases. This limits Pakistan’s legal options.
What’s Next?
Infrastructure Plans: India’s Water Resources Ministry has announced plans to ensure that “not even a drop of water from the Indus River goes to Pakistan.” This could involve constructing dams or diversion projects — costly and time-consuming undertakings.
Diplomacy and Talks: Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has expressed readiness to engage in peace talks. If negotiations resume, water-sharing agreements will undoubtedly be a focal point.
Environmental Concerns: Large-scale diversion projects could harm the Indus River ecosystem, affecting millions of people living downstream.
A Precarious Balance
India’s move to suspend the IWT is a calculated strategic maneuver in response to terrorism, but it carries significant risks. For Pakistan, it poses a direct threat to water security. For India, it risks escalating tensions not just with Pakistan, but also with other riparian states like Bangladesh and China.
In a region already grappling with water scarcity and climate change, maintaining diplomatic channels and revisiting water-sharing frameworks will be crucial to preventing conflict and ensuring sustainable water management.
